***************************************************************************** THIS IS THE PROGRAM FILE THAT CORRESPONDS TO THE DATA FILE FOR THE PAPER "THE FOMC IN 1992: A MONETARY CONUNDRUM" BY JOSEPH A. RITTER, PUBLISHED IN THE MAY/JUNE 1993 "REVIEW." ***************************************************************************** TABLE 1: TO CALCULATE THE GROWTH RATES: USE WEEKLY M1 AND M2 FROM THE DATA SOURCE GIVEN IN THE DATA FILE FOR THIS ARTICLE. END = VALUE FOR THE WEEK BEFORE THE FOLLOWING MEETING START = VALUE FOR THE WEEK OF THE MEETING FIGURE 1: TO CREATE FIGURE 1: USE QUARTERLY PAYEMP AND RGDP FROM THE DATA SOURCE GIVEN IN THE DATA FILE FOR THIS ARTICLE. COMPUTE THE COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATES FOR THE TROUGH QUARTER AND THE SEVEN FOLLOWING QUARTERS FOR THE RECESSIONS WITH TROUGHS IN: 1949 QUARTER 1 1954 QUARTER 2 1958 QUARTER 2 1961 QUARTER 2 1970 QUARTER 4 1975 QUARTER 1 1980 QUARTER 3 1982 QUARTER 4 1991 QUARTER 1. THE RATES CALCULATED FOR THE 1991 QUARTER 1 TROUGH AND THE SEVEN FOLLOWING QUARTERS ARE THE VALUES FOR 1991-92 IN FIGURE 1. TO COMPUTE THE AVERAGE: USE THE GROWTH RATES FOR THE 1949 QUARTER 1 RECESSION THROUGH THE 1982 QUARTER 4 RECESSION. CONTINUE USING THE SAME EQUATION FOR THE REMAINING QUARTERS AFTER THE TROUGHS. FIGURE 2: TO CREATE FIGURE 2: USE WEEKLY RAW DATA FROM THE DATA SOURCES GIVEN IN THE DATA FILE FOR THIS ARTICLE. DATA IS NEEDED FOR THE THREE MONTH TREASURY BILL RATE, DISCOUNT RATE, FEDERAL FUNDS RATE, FIVE YEAR TREASURY NOTE, AND TEN YEAR TREASURY BOND. FOR TB3, USE DATA FROM THE DATA SOURCE AND CALCULATE TB3 USING THE FOLLOWING FORMULA. WHERE TBILL = TREASURY BILL RATE OBTAINED FROM THE BOARD AS A DISCOUNT BASIS RATE THIS TB3 IS CONTAINED IN THE DATASET FOR THIS ARTICLE. FIGURE 3: TO CREATE FIGURE 3: USE MONTHLY M2 RAW DATA FROM THE DATA SOURCE LISTED IN THE DATA FILE FOR THIS ARTICLE. FIGURE 4 AND 6: TO CALCULATE THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES: USE MONTHLY M1, M2, PAYEMP, IP, AND CPI FROM THE DATA SOURCE. FIGURE 5: TO CALCULATE M2OP: USE TB3 AND RM2E DATA FROM THE DATA SOURCES LISTED. M2OPCOST = TB3-RM2E A TWO QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE IS THEN CALCULATED TO GENERATE M2OP. M2OP IS THEN PLOTTED ON A LOG SCALE. FOR M2V: USE RAW DATA FROM THE DATA SOURCE LISTED. M2V IS PLOTTED ON A LOG SCALE.