*------------------------------------------------------------------------------* THIS IS THE DATA FILE FOR DAVID C. WHEELOCK'S REVIEW ARTICLE "CONDUCTING MONETARY POLICY WITHOUT GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE FED'S EARLY YEARS" IN THE MAY/JUNE 2002 ISSUE. *------------------------------------------------------------------------------* ******************************************************************************** Data for Figure 1 ******************************************************************************** Figure 1 - U.S. Government Debt /GDP (Annual data, 1917-2011*) Col F Sources: Nominal GDP (billions of dollars, SAAR) Gordon: Nominal GDP Gordon, Robert J. "Macroeconomics". Eighth Edition. Addison-Wesley: Reading, MA (2000). Haver: GDPA - Gross Domestic Product Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis US Government Debt (billions of dollars, end of period) Debt Held by Agencies/Trusts (Dec. values, Direct unless noted) 1917-35 Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1914-1941 (Table 149) **direct + guaranteed; June values 1936-39 Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1914-1941 (Table 149) **direct+guaranteed 1940-49 Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1941-1970 (Table 13.4) **direct+guaranteed 1950-70 Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1941-1970 (Table 13.4) 1971-79 Annual Statistical Digest 1970-1979 (Table 28) 1981-89 Annual Statistical Digest 1980-1989 (Table 27) 1990-2000 FRED (FDHBATN) Federal Debt: Held by Agencies & Trust Gross Public Debt (Dec. values, Direct unless noted) 1917-39 Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1914-1941 (Table 146) **1916-1935 June Values 1940-49 Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1941-1970 (Table 13.4) **direct+guaranteed 1950-70 Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1941-1970 (Table 13.4) 1971-79 Annual Statistical Digest 1970-1979 (Table 28) 1981-89 Annual Statistical Digest 1980-1989 (Table 27) 1990-2000 FRED (GFDEBTN) Federal Government Debt: Total Public Debt (end of cal. year) Debt/GDP forecasts for 2001-11 CBO, "The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update," August 2001 CBO baseline projections (i.e., do not account for the proposed tax cut) Col A: Nominal GDP - Gordon Col B: Nominal GDP - Haver Col C: Gross Public Debt Col D: Debt Held by Agencies/Trusts Col E: Col D less Col E Col F: Debt / GDP (Col A)(Col B) (Col C) (Col D) (Col E) (Col F) 1917 57.3 . 2.976 0.002 2.974 0.052 1918 72.5 . 12.244 0.056 12.188 0.168 1919 80.3 . 25.482 0.158 25.324 0.315 1920 90.7 . 24.298 0.217 24.081 0.266 1921 76.2 . 23.976 0.359 23.617 0.310 1922 75.9 . 22.964 0.432 22.532 0.297 1923 89 . 22.35 0.419 21.931 0.246 1924 91.4 . 21.251 0.394 20.857 0.228 1925 95.1 . 20.516 0.53 19.986 0.210 1926 101.4 . 19.643 0.658 18.985 0.187 1927 100.2 . 18.51 0.759 17.751 0.177 1928 101.2 . 17.604 0.854 16.75 0.166 1929 108.1 103.7 16.931 0.916 16.015 0.154 1930 94.8 91.3 16.185 1.001 15.184 0.166 1931 . 76.6 16.801 0.465 16.336 0.213 1932 . 58.8 19.487 0.601 18.886 0.321 1933 . 56.4 22.539 0.69 21.849 0.387 1934 . 66.0 27.053 1.438 25.615 0.388 1935 . 73.3 28.701 1.991 26.71 0.364 1936 . 83.7 34.407 2.432 31.975 0.382 1937 . 91.9 37.279 4.255 33.024 0.359 1938 . 86.1 39.427 5.333 34.094 0.396 1939 . 92.0 41.942 6.531 35.411 0.385 1940 . 101.3 50.9 7.6 43.3 0.427 1941 . 126.7 64.3 9.5 54.8 0.433 1942 . 161.8 112.5 12.2 100.3 0.620 1943 . 198.4 170.1 16.9 153.2 0.772 1944 . 219.7 232.1 21.7 210.4 0.958 1945 . 223.0 278.7 27 251.7 1.129 1946 . 222.3 259.5 30.9 228.6 1.028 1947 . 244.4 255.7 34.4 221.3 0.905 1948 . 269.6 251.7 37.3 214.4 0.795 1949 . 267.7 256.2 39.4 216.8 0.810 1950 . 294.3 255.4 36 219.4 0.745 1951 . 339.5 258.1 39.3 218.8 0.644 1952 . 358.6 266.1 42.9 223.2 0.622 1953 . 379.9 273.8 45.5 228.3 0.601 1954 . 381.1 277.2 46.7 230.5 0.605 1955 . 415.2 279.1 49 230.1 0.554 1956 . 438.0 275.5 51.2 224.3 0.512 1957 . 461.5 274.2 52.8 221.4 0.480 1958 . 467.9 282.2 52.1 230.1 0.492 1959 . 507.4 288.7 51.4 237.3 0.468 1960 . 527.4 287.7 52.8 234.9 0.445 1961 . 545.7 293.6 52.5 241.1 0.442 1962 . 586.5 300.2 53.2 247 0.421 1963 . 618.7 306 55.3 250.7 0.405 1964 . 664.4 314.3 58.3 256 0.385 1965 . 720.1 317.2 59.7 257.5 0.358 1966 . 789.3 325.6 65.8 259.8 0.329 1967 . 834.1 341.8 73.1 268.7 0.322 1968 . 911.5 356.2 76.6 279.6 0.307 1969 . 985.3 367.4 89 278.4 0.283 1970 . 1039.7 388.3 97.1 291.2 0.280 1971 . 1128.6 423.3 106 317.3 0.281 1972 . 1240.4 448.5 116.9 331.6 0.267 1973 . 1385.5 469.1 129.6 339.5 0.245 1974 . 1501.0 492.7 141.2 351.5 0.234 1975 . 1635.2 576.6 139.3 437.3 0.267 1976 . 1823.9 653.5 147.1 506.4 0.278 1977 . 2031.4 718.9 154.8 564.1 0.278 1978 . 2295.9 789.2 170 619.2 0.270 1979 . 2566.4 845.1 187.1 658 0.256 1980 . 2795.6 930.2 192.5 737.7 0.264 1981 . 3131.3 1028.7 203.2 825.5 0.264 1982 . 3259.2 1197.1 209.4 987.7 0.303 1983 . 3534.9 1410.7 236.3 1174.4 0.332 1984 . 3932.7 1663 289.6 1373.4 0.349 1985 . 4213.0 1945.9 348.9 1597 0.379 1986 . 4452.9 2214.8 403.1 1811.7 0.407 1987 . 4742.5 2431.7 477.6 1954.1 0.412 1988 . 5108.3 2684.4 589.2 2095.2 0.410 1989 . 5489.1 2953 707.8 2245.2 0.409 1990 . 5803.2 3364.8 828.3 2536.5 0.437 1991 . 5986.2 3801.7 968.7 2833 0.473 1992 . 6318.9 4177 1047.7 3129.3 0.495 1993 . 6642.3 4535.7 1153.5 3382.2 0.509 1994 . 7054.3 4800.2 1257 3543.2 0.502 1995 . 7400.5 4988.7 1304.5 3684.2 0.498 1996 . 7813.2 5323.2 1497.2 3826 0.490 1997 . 8318.4 5502.4 1655.7 3846.7 0.462 1998 . 8790.2 5614.2 1826.8 3787.4 0.431 1999 . 9299.2 5776.1 2060.6 3715.5 0.400 2000 . 9963.1 5662.2 2248.7 3413.5 0.343 2001 . . . . . 0.321 2002 . . . . . 0.292 2003 . . . . . 0.263 2004 . . . . . 0.235 2005 . . . . . 0.205 2006 . . . . . 0.174 2007 . . . . . 0.142 2008 . . . . . 0.110 2009 . . . . . 0.076 2010 . . . . . 0.058 2011 . . . . . 0.052 ******************************************************************************** Data for Figures 2 and 5 ******************************************************************************** Figure 2 - Principal Sources of Federal Reserve Credit (Annual data, 1914-41) Cols A,B,C Figure 5 - Government Security Holdings as a Percent of Total Adjusted Federal Reserve Credit* (Annual data, 1915-2001) Cols D Sources: 1914-41 Banking and Monetary Statisitcs, 1914-1941 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: Washington DC Table 100, pp. 368 Member Bank Reserves, Reserve Bank Credit and Related Items Annual averages of daily figures, 1917-1941 (In millions of dollars) 1942-70 (Govts + Accept. Combined) Banking and Monetary Statisitcs, 1941-1970 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: Washington DC Table 10.1, pp. 524 Member Bank Reserves, Reserve Bank Credit and Related Items Annual averages of daily figures, 1917-1970 (In millions of dollars) 1970-79 Annual Statistical Digest, 1970-1979 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: Washington DC Table 2, p.11 Factors affecting member bank reserves Annual and monthly averages (In millions of dollars) 1980-89 Annual Statistical Digest, 1980-1989 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: Washington DC Table 2, p.11-20 Reserves of depository institutions and Reserve Bank credit Monthly averages (In millions of dollars) 1990-2001 Board of Governors FAME database US Government Securities: RESPPALGUO_N.M--U.S. Government Securities, bought outright RESPPALGUR_N.M--U.S. Government Securities, held under repurchase agreements RESPPALGAO_N.M--Federal Agency Obligations, bought outright RESPPALGAR_N.M--Federal Agency Obligations, held under repurchase agreements Discount loans and advances RESBRA14A_N.M--Adjustment Credit, 14-day average RESBRS14A_N.M--Seasonal Credit, 14-day average RESBRE14A_N.M--Extended Credit, 14-day average RESBRL14A_N.M--Special Facility Liquidity Credit, 14-day average Col A: Discount loans and advances Col B: Fed holdings of bankers acceptances Col C: Fed holdings of U.S. Government Securities Col D: Government Security Holdings as a Percent of Total Adjusted Federal Reserve Credit (Col. A) (Col. B) (Col. C) (Col. D) 1914 10 0 0 0 1915 24 10 8 19.04761905 1916 24 66 47 34.30656934 1917 194 150 89 20.55427252 1918 1134 287 134 8.617363344 1919 1906 324 254 10.22544283 1920 2523 385 324 10.02475248 1921 1797 91 264 12.26765799 1922 571 159 455 38.39662447 1923 736 227 186 16.18798956 1924 373 172 402 42.44984161 1925 490 287 359 31.60211268 1926 572 281 350 29.09393184 1927 442 263 417 37.1657754 1928 840 328 297 20.27303754 1929 952 241 208 14.84653819 1930 272 213 564 53.76549094 1931 327 245 669 53.9081386 1932 521 71 1461 71.16415002 1933 283 83 2052 84.86352357 1934 36 25 2432 97.55314882 1935 7 5 2431 99.50880065 1936 6 4 2431 99.59033183 1937 14 3 2504 99.32566442 1938 9 1 2565 99.61165049 1939 5 0 2584 99.80687524 1940 4 0 2417 99.83477902 1941 5 0 2187 99.77189781 1942 7 . 3191 99.7811132 1943 25 . 7724 99.67737773 1944 135 . 14772 99.09438519 1945 376 . 21363 98.27038962 1946 310 . 23250 98.68421053 1947 219 . 22330 99.02878176 1948 331 . 21511 98.48457101 1949 231 . 19560 98.83280279 1950 129 . 18410 99.30416959 1951 293 . 22756 98.72879518 1952 801 . 23066 96.64390162 1953 777 . 24661 96.94551458 1954 217 . 24646 99.12721715 1955 666 . 23904 97.28937729 1956 833 . 23732 96.60899654 1957 850 . 23372 96.49079349 1958 295 . 24694 98.81948057 1959 812 . 26229 96.99715247 1960 436 . 26412 98.37604291 1961 83 . 27439 99.69842308 1962 137 . 29571 99.53884476 1963 269 . 31824 99.16181099 1964 295 . 24700 98.81976395 1965 492 . 39749 98.77736637 1966 650 . 41980 98.47525217 1967 178 . 46253 99.61663544 1968 569 . 51376 98.90461065 1969 1103 . 54112 98.00235443 1970 835 . 58260 98.5870209 1971 412 . 65431 99.37426909 1972 322 . 71063 99.54892484 1973 1678 . 76159 97.84421291 1974 2054 . 83450 97.5977732 1975 195 . 89247 99.78198162 1976 84 . 97439 99.91343959 1977 461 . 104239 99.55977361 1978 871 . 114415 99.24491805 1979 1339 . 117813 98.87643278 1980 1416 . 128336 98.90849677 1981 1361 . 130858 98.97064978 1982 1052 . 139918 99.2538606 1983 1039 . 151466 99.31898073 1984 3730 . 161292 97.73974809 1985 1321 . 175048 99.25090625 1986 836 . 192514 99.56779458 1987 756 . 216635 99.65227745 1988 2357 . 231442 98.99201166 1989 1140 . 232302 99.51169073 1990 926 . 236441 99.61002678 1991 373 . 256496 99.85472475 1992 172 . 282855 99.93914012 1993 180 . 320260 99.94390519 1994 259 . 353656 99.92684215 1995 203 . 375807 99.94605631 1996 202 . 390014 99.94823383 1997 276 . 417446 99.934047 1998 162 . 446851 99.96385262 1999 221 . 485550 99.95448815 2000 362 . 506743 99.92864789 2001 400 . 532494 99.92487629 ******************************************************************************** Data for Figures 3 and 4 ******************************************************************************** Figure 3 - Principal Sources of Federal Reserve Credit Cols C, D, E Figure 4 - M1 Money Stock and Total Bank Reserves Cols F, G SOURCE for col C-H: Banking and Monetary Statisitcs Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: Washington DC Table 101, pp. 370-371 Member Bank Reserves, Reserve Bank Credit and Related Items Monthly averages of daily figures, August 1917-December 1941 (In millions of dollars) SOURCE for col I: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz Table A-1, pp. 712-713 (column 7) Currency Held by Public and Deposits Seasonally adjusted, 1967-1960 (millions of dollars) Col A: Bills discounted (Discount loans) Col B: Bills bought (Fed holdings of acceptances) Col C: Bills discounted + Bills bought (Sum of discount loans and Fed holdings of acceptances) Col D: U.S. Government Securities (Fed holdings of US Government securities) Col E: Total (Total Federal Reserve credit) Col F: Total member bank reserve balances (Total member bank reserves) Col G: M1 (M1 money stock) (Col A) (Col B) (Col C) (Col D) (Col E) (Col F) (Col G) 1928 465 373 838 512 1388 2426 26137 . 471 360 831 406 1264 2368 26211 . 513 343 856 415 1295 2365 26223 . 661 358 1019 351 1405 2396 26579 . 836 349 1185 257 1472 2388 26383 . 1019 244 1263 232 1531 2355 25761 . 1090 185 1275 213 1531 2324 25975 . 1061 178 1239 210 1485 2274 25809 . 1064 226 1290 240 1581 2314 26041 . 975 368 1343 237 1621 2332 26209 . 897 471 1368 238 1653 2352 26402 . 1013 483 1496 263 1824 2367 26436 1929 859 473 1332 229 1613 2387 26109 . 889 385 1274 184 1502 2357 26258 . 971 265 1236 197 1481 2337 26286 . 1010 156 1166 165 1377 2308 26346 . 960 145 1105 153 1303 2296 26066 . 978 99 1077 179 1317 2314 26189 . 1096 75 1171 147 1380 2334 26683 . 1043 124 1167 155 1376 2322 26471 . 969 229 1198 165 1427 2335 26415 . 885 337 1222 154 1450 2386 28264 . 953 296 1249 315 1631 2521 25503 . 803 320 1123 446 1643 2395 26434 1930 501 314 815 485 1357 2349 25677 . 378 285 663 480 1181 2305 25938 . 274 246 520 540 1095 2330 26336 . 231 266 497 530 1072 2350 25935 . 247 182 429 529 996 2356 25325 . 251 141 392 571 1000 2392 25293 . 226 154 380 583 1003 2417 25400 . 214 153 367 599 998 2392 25061 . 189 197 386 597 1016 2397 25042 . 196 185 381 602 1020 2407 24986 . 221 184 405 599 1033 2433 25027 . 338 257 595 644 1273 2415 24922 1931 253 206 459 647 1129 2433 24561 . 216 102 318 603 936 2370 24713 . 176 123 299 604 921 2386 24758 . 155 173 328 600 952 2376 24250 . 163 144 307 599 926 2387 23890 . 190 121 311 610 945 2404 23883 . 169 79 248 674 954 2407 23802 . 223 135 358 712 1107 2345 23429 . 282 259 541 736 1313 2333 23369 . 614 692 1306 733 2088 2256 22710 . 695 560 1255 727 2035 2118 22355 . 774 340 1114 777 1950 2069 21894 1932 828 221 1049 759 1864 1979 21507 . 848 151 999 743 1785 1907 21310 . 714 105 819 809 1652 1899 21110 . 605 52 657 1014 1694 1996 20882 . 486 41 527 1413 1959 2138 20531 . 495 50 545 1697 2262 2062 20449 . 523 60 583 1818 2422 2003 20153 . 451 37 488 1850 2353 2073 20189 . 387 34 421 1848 2282 2181 20211 . 328 34 362 1851 2231 2307 20256 . 313 34 347 1851 2211 2378 20555 . 282 34 316 1854 2192 2435 20341 1933 255 32 287 1806 2110 2516 20627 . 307 102 409 1804 2224 2291 19982